• Punjab polls slated for February 14 promise to be very different as the state braces itself for a five-cornered contest
• The State has new players, in the form of two farmers’ parties in the fray
• Relegated to the sidelines after a 10-year rule, SAD is hoping to stage a comeback

The Punjab polls slated for February 14 promise to be very different this time as the volatile state braces itself for a five-cornered contest amidst hiked aspirations, a plethora of promises, and a host of pending and lingering issues.

Coming against the backdrop of the yearlong agitation against farm laws spearheaded by Punjab, the State has a new entity, in the form of two farmers’ parties in the fray. The ruling Congress party, though badly fractured, is trying hard to combat the anti-incumbency factor. AAP, the principal opposition party after the 2017 polls, is still finding its bearings.

Relegated to the sidelines after a 10-year rule, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is hoping to stage a comeback by encashing on the predominant Dalit factor in Punjab with the help of a newfound ally in the BSP. Besides, Captain Amarinder Singh, who is still nursing his wounds from the humiliation heaped on him by the Congress, has teamed up with the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Sanyukt) led by the Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa. Having broken off from the SAD, the “saffron party” is trying to establish its independent entity in the border state.

What has unnerved all political parties in Punjab this time is the “Kisan factor”. Except for the BJP, all other political parties were hoping to encash the farmer’s support in the polls. It was this hope that made each of them unabashedly support the Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) in its opposition to the three farm laws.

However, following the repeal of the laws, a section of the SKM has decided to jump into the poll fray to encash on their popularity. Gurnam Singh Chaduni, a farm leader from neighboring Haryana decided to contest the Punjab polls even before laws were repealed and formed Sanyukt Sangharsh Party (SSP). And when the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, unilaterally announced the repeal of the laws, there was an air of buoyancy in Punjab. It was hailed as a victory of the masses.

As many as 19 farm unions, including the one led by Balbir Singh Rajewal, also decided to contest the polls by forming Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM). This was much to the chagrin of the traditional parties like the Congress, SAD, and AAP. In fact, AAP had been hobnobbing with Rajewal and had even toyed with the idea of projecting him as a CM-face of the party or the alliance. But so far the alliance has been a non-starter.

What further changed the already muddled poll scenario was the much anticipated but aborted visit of Prime Minister Modi to Punjab on January 5. Since the visit came in the backdrop of the yearlong farm agitation, the anger of the farmers had not completely dissipated. Roadblocks by farmers forced the PM to cancel the public rally planned by the BJP, which in any case was poorly attended, partly because of the rain that day. Cancellation of the rally due to farmer protests led to an unsavory row over security breach and much mud-slinging by parties. There was a clear polarization on the issue which threatened to disturb the hard-earned peace in Punjab. It was only the sudden announcement of the polls that the focus has shifted.

BJP and its allies – Amarinder Singh-led Punjab Lok Congress and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa-led SAD (S) – hope that the row over the security breach of the high office of the PM would get them the sympathy of the urban voter, primarily Hindus who constitute a little less than 40 percent of the total vote in Punjab. On the other hand, Congress hopes that the controversy would help it consolidate the vote, especially in the rural areas. The State Government led by Charanjit Channi had termed the “Modi visit” episode as an effort to give a bad name to Punjab and Sikhs. However, what could be the bane of the Congress is the fractured nature of its leadership in the state.

Due to conflicting ambitions, the Congress is forced to project a triumvirate of Punjab Party Chief Navjot Sidhu, CM Charanjit Channi, and former Party Chief Sunil Jakhar for the polls in order to win over different sections of voters. Sidhu is seen as a crowd puller with appeal across all sections. Channi as CM for the past four months has proved to be a “doer”, with immense appeal among Dalits.

Sunil Jakhar is perhaps the most acceptable face among non-Sikhs in Punjab. But, during the past few months, both Sidhu and Channi have been seen to be pulling in different directions. Besides the triarchy, other leaders like former State Party Chief Pratap Singh Bajwa have their own ambitions. Efforts to combat the anti-incumbency factor by replacing Amarinder Singh a few months ago may boomerang due to no-holds-barred infighting that ensued after his exit and which sees no end.

Incidentally, in 2017 polls, the Congress (which won 77 seats) found support from an unexpected quarter, the urban voter patronized by the BJP. Sensing defeat for the SAD-BJP Alliance, the urban voter swung unexpectedly towards the Congress, much to the shock of the AAP, who was seen as the frontrunner and flirting with the radical Sikhs. This time, with the BJP in the fray independently, the Congress could face a hard time in the urban areas, especially due to its perceived pro-farmer stance during the “Modi visit row”.

Given the uncertainty that prevails, the BJP and its allies are hoping to possibly play the kingmaker in the wake of an unclear verdict. Besides BJP’s strength in urban areas, the Alliance is banking on the two-time CM, Amarinder Singh to make some dent in Congress bastions. Besides, it hopes that the party led by Dhindsa would inflict some damage on SAD (Badal) due to sacrilege and other “Sikh Panthik” issues.

Like the farmers, the poll arithmetic in Punjab also hinges around the “Dalit factor”. The Dalits constitute about 32 percent of the Punjab electorate, which is the highest in the country. However, since they are further split into sub-castes, they don’t vote as one entity. While they had been consolidated as a powerful electoral entity by the late Kanshi Ram in the 1990s, their strength has been on the wane since then.

In 2017, the party polled only 1.5 percent of the vote. On the issue of the farm laws, sensing alienation of its major support base, the farmers, the SAD severed its 25-year long alliance with the BJP. The SAD (B), has now tied up with the BSP, hoping for a repeat of the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, when its alliance with BSP earned them as many as 11 (of 13) seats. Together they polled 38 percent votes. But, clearly much has changed since then. Moreover, the SAD is still feeling the heat over its last incumbency on sacrilege and drugs. These and other issues reduced the SAD (B) to only 15 seats, and its then ally, BJP to 3 seats in 2017.

Amidst the unusual poll conundrum, anti-incumbency and realignments, the AAP is hoping for a windfall at the hustlings. Despite the disintegration of its cadres and senior leaders existing the party since 2017, the party is hoping to encash on the disenchantment of voters with the Congress and the SAD. Like in 2017, the Party is again entering the poll fray on the strength of its National Convener, Arvind Kejriwal, and its “performance” in Delhi. In order to woo the poor and marginal voter, it has announced a slew of populist measures, which in turn forced other parties too to follow suit.

Since 2017, when AAP won 20 seats, the party has made two major changes in its strategy. While in 2017 it was riding on the Sikh sympathy wave and tried to woo the NRIs, this time, its appeal is more nationalist in character. It has carried out Tiranga Yatra in several places to consolidate its voter base in cities. Also, unlike last time, Arvind Kejriwal has announced that the party will have a CM-face this time. Devoid of any other face, two-time Member of Parliament, Bhagwant Mann, remains the frontrunner and perhaps the only worthy “face” left in the party.

What stands out distinctly in the coming polls is the bounty of freebies and populist measures announced by different parties, which accumulatively would amount for a significant part of the total annual budget of the State! Also, taking a cue from the organization that spearheaded the farmers movement, the most preferred prefix in selecting party names for the 2022 polls appears to be the word, “Sanyukt” (united), never mind how disunited the polity actually is!

It is after years that the state faces such an uncertain poll scenario. Some political observers compare the present electoral chaos to 1997 when the State was recovering from a decade-old militancy. The Akali-BJP alliance had recorded an impressive win and the incumbent Congress had been reduced to the margins. Now the dismal scenario is marked by a faltering economy and a rural peasantry in dismay, compounded by poor governance of successive regimes.

Unlike the last two elections, the enthusiasm of the Punjabi NRIs is missing for the 2022 polls. In 2012 they pitched for the Peoples’ Party of Punjab (PPP), which proved to be a damp squib. In 2017, they had pitched strongly for the AAP, even opening their purse strings liberally. They were disappointed yet again. This time, while their sympathies lie with the farmers, they are befuddled by multiple parties in the fray and disunity among farm unions over contesting polls. They appear to be lying low and preferring to wait and watch.

Like last time, there will be a wait of a few weeks after the votes are polled and election results are announced on March 10. Finally, when the new incumbent government is in the saddle, it faces an uphill task. The State reels under a debt burden of nearly Rs. 3 Lakh Crores. Besides, it has a missing industrial base, a high unemployment rate, and an awakened and angry farm lobby and peasantry, not to mention the lingering issues of sacrilege and drug abuse.