• Barring two odd Exit Polls, all others have predicted that AAP will either get a thumping majority or emerge as the single largest party in Punjab
• Should AAP form government in Punjab, it would herald the triumphant march of the party from Delhi to other states via Punjab
• While the party has been awaiting a breakthrough in Punjab since 2014, it has been the voters’ preferred choice in Delhi since 2015

Two days before the verdict is finally out on Punjab assembly polls, while leaders of the Aam Aadmi Party are celebrating, those of other parties including the ruling Congress are having sleepless nights. Barring two odd Exit Polls, all others have predicted that AAP will either get a thumping majority or emerge as the single largest party way ahead of others in the hustling.

Should AAP form government in Punjab on its own steam or with support of another party, as most Exit Polls predict, it would herald the triumphant march of the party from Delhi to other states via Punjab. While the party has been awaiting a breakthrough in Punjab since 2014, it has been the voters’ preferred choice in Delhi since 2015.

Whether or not the Exit Polls are deadly accurate, they have electrified the pre-result scenario after three weeks of a lull following voting on Feb 20 in what has been to date the most unpredictable election. Besides the Congress, others in the fray included AAP, Shiromani Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party, BJP-Punjab Lok Congress-SAD(S), and the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha in what was seen as a five-cornered contest. It now emerges that the final contest veered down to a triangular fight between the Congress, AAP and SAD-BSP combine, with the BJP+ and SSM only playing vote-splitters.

Nevertheless, the results promise to be vastly different from 2017 when Congress won whopping 77 seats after poll pundits had predicted an AAP win. AAP was reduced to 20 seats, and SAD-BJP combine to 18 seats (15 plus 3). No wonder most people are still wary of hedging a bet just yet because of 2017 predictions – and before that 2012 – going awry.

There have been more than one dozen Exit Polls this time. More than half predict a clear majority for AAP. One of them (News24-Chanakya) has given AAP 100-Plus seats. Six others have given AAP between 62 – 90 seats. If these polls are to be believed, AAP magic which was restricted in 2017 polls to the Malwa belt (total 69 seats) has spread this time to the Majha (25 seats) and the Doaba (23 seats) areas of Punjab as well.

The Exit Polls predicting a clear majority for AAP, tend to restrict the Congress to a mere 10 to 30 seats. Congress drubbing could be directly attributed not just to anti-incumbency but to intense infighting which continued till the polling day and continues to simmer as the votes are awaiting a count. “We were competing not with rivals but with ourselves to score self-goals,” commented an outgoing Congress Rajya Sabha MP when exit polls started being telecast.

If Poll results indeed tally with the final outcome on March 10 when counting takes place, the party will face major churning in the State. It would mean that the Congress High Command gamble of changing horses midstream had backfired. Six months before polls the Party had replaced Sunil Jakhar with Navjot Sidhu as State Party President. Four months before polls, it replaced Captain Amarinder Singh with a non-descript though amiable leader Charanjit Singh Channi, a Dalit, as Chief Minister.

Feeling humiliated, Amarinder Singh formed his own party which forged an alliance with the BJP. Later Channi was confirmed as the CM face, despite a serious corruption charge against his family. All this left the maverick Sidhu sulking and the party was left without an effective campaigner to counter AAP’s, Bhagwant Mann. The Exit Polls point to a repeat of 1997 when a last-minute change of guard in CM had reduced the Congress to a mere 14 seats.

These Exit polls have all but reduced the Akali Dal to rubble. From the 15 seats, it got in 2017, some Exit Polls predict only between 6 and 10 seats. This is highly unlikely though given the high vote percentage of 24 per cent the party had managed to get even in 2017 when anti-incumbency was at its peak and the party had to bear the brunt of incidents of sacrilege in the State. Even though the party may perform better than what the Exit Polls predict, it is yet to regain the overwhelming acceptability of the Sikh voter. Parting of ways by veteran Akali leader Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa and his son, who formed SAD(S), also appear to have damaged the SAD (Badal) in some areas of Malwa, especially the Sangrur belt.

Exit poll predictions also mean that the much-touted “Dera Sacha Sauda” factor in Malwa was not of much consequence. The Sirsa-based Dera, which was said to have influence in nearly 25 seats of Malwa in Punjab, had reportedly asked its “premise” (devotees) to cast their vote for SAD and BJP. So also the “Deep Sidhu factor” is just on eve of polls.

Actor-turned-activist, Deep Sidhu had died in an accident days before polling day but after making an emotional visual appeal to the people to discard the “jharoo” (broom) for the sword while asking for a pitch for the former IPS officer-turned Khalistan Ideologue, Simranjit Singh Mann in Amargarh Constituency. The video had gone viral among youth.

Exit Polls also reiterate the fact that despite the success of the year-long Farmers’ Agitation the SSM, a late entrant in polls, failed to click with the voter. In fact, the SSM may have damaged SAD and the Congress and benefited AAP. This could also mean that the effect of “Channi factor” on the Dalit vote across the state did not have much effect. Also the BSP failed to bolster the SAD fortunes, even in Doaba. Similarly, despite tall claims and hectic campaigning by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, BJP is yet to establish itself as a viable political entity in Punjab. At least this is what the Exit Polls appear to suggest.

ABP News-C-Voter put AAP in lead as the single largest party with 51-61 seats followed by Congress with 22-28 seats and then SAD-BSP with 20-26, and others getting 8-14 seats. News9 Marathi has also given similar projection.

With some Exit polls indicating a hung assembly, the predicament is not yet over. Two of the polls gave the three competing parties equal number of seats. Zee Exit Poll predicted 36 to 39 seats for AAP, 35 to 38 for the Congress, 32 to 35 for the SAD-BSP and 4 to 7 for the BJP. Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll had similar projection – 38-44 to AAP, 30-39 to SAD-BSP, 26-32 to Congress, 7-10 to BJP.

Ground Zero Exit Poll, however, put Congress in a slender lead as a single largest party with 49-59 seats, with AAP getting 27-37 seats, SAD-BSP 20-30 seats and BJP getting 2-6 seats.

Varying margins and differing predictions have once again cast doubts on the art and science of Exit Polls. One Exit Poll has predicted a huge variation in seats ranging from 56 to 91 seats for AAP!

Many political analysts agree that an urge for a change of sorts in Punjab is perceptible. However, they are skeptical of the poll predictions. Dr Pramod Kumar, Director Institute for Development (IDC) and a political analyst, feels that Exit Polls tend to cross each other out because of the difference in margins that they predict, “While one Exit Poll gives AAP 36-44 seats, another one gives it 100 plus”. On the variation in seats from 58 to 100 given by seven polls, former IFS officer, KC Singh, who had formed Sanjha Sunehra Manch, a political outfit in the run-up to the polls in a tweet asked, “Is this science or cricket?”

The Congress and the SAD-BSP combine may draw some consolation from the fact that in the last two elections in 2012 and 2017 the opinion and exit polls were by and large off the mark. However, in private conversations even their leaders don’t discount the overpowering sentiment for “badlaav” (change) that was imminent.

This is what AAP supremo, Arvind Kejriwal and his “point person” from Delhi in Punjab, Raghav Chadha, encashed on. And if the Exit Polls are to be believed, the message is clear: so fed up are the voters with the rampant corruption and mis-governance by traditional parties that they decided to disregard all allegations hurled at AAP during polls, including giving tickets to defectors from other parties and also “money-for-ticket” charges. A win for AAP would be nothing short of a miracle.

After 2017, the Party was in disarray in Punjab as most senior leaders parted ways. It failed to click in municipal and panchayat polls and except for Sangrur Parliamentary seat, it performed poorly in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Till six months before polls, the Party was without any structure at the grassroots in most places and it was struggling to keep afloat. The last few weeks proved to be a game changer as “brand-Kejriwal” started getting a boost, especially after Bhagwant Mann was declared CM-face, while Congress crumbled by and by.

As the day of counting of votes nears, one thing is clear. Given the difference in predictions in Exit Polls, at least a few of the pollsters will have to eat crow and have much to introspect once the verdict is out.