- As Congress and SAD are marginalized, AAP magic prevails all over Punjab
- Punjab’s CM-choice is satirist-turned politician, Bhagwant Mann, as stalwarts, Parkash Singh Badal, Amarinder Singh, Navjot Sidhu and Charanjit Channi bite the dust
- In a yearning for change (‘badal’), people of Punjab decide to give ‘ikk mauka’ (one chance) to AAP
True to projections, Aam Aadmi Party swept Punjab as never before winning a record 92 of 117 state assembly seats. It was as if the words of the famous poet, Faiz Ahmed Faiz, were playing out the length and breadth of the state, “sab taaj uchhale jayenge, sab takht giraye jayenge…..” (all crowns will be tossed, thrones pulled down…”). As the AAP Tsunami struck, the erstwhile top leadership, which ruled Punjab intermittently for the past 50 years, was reduced to dust.
This included the five-time Chief Minister, nonagenarian Parkash Singh Badal, his son, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Captain Amarinder Singh and Charanjit Singh Channi. Even the likes of Navjot Sidhu, who often boasted of invincibility, were humbled.
Instead, Punjab reposed its trust in the 48-year old satirist-turned politician, Bhagwant Mann to be the 17th Chief Minister of Punjab.
After months of speculation of a possible “hung assembly”, what finally turned out was a non-contest. As AAP romped home with 92 seats, the ruling Congress, despite a shake-up in the run-up to polls, struggled to win 18 seats. And in the final analysis, the woes of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) deepened further as the Party was reduced to a paltry 4 seats. The BJP-Punjab Lok Congress-SAD (S) combine could manage a mere 2 seats and the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha, the farmers’ party, was a washout.
After recording two magnificent wins in Delhi in 2015 and 2020, AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal now has the volatile state of Punjab in its kitty as it prepares for a nation-wide footprint. Raghav Chadha, his point-man in Punjab, made no qualms of the intent as he talked of the national importance of the Punjab win.
Among the surfeit of Exit Polls that surfaced before the counting day, Chanakya-News24 nearly hit the nail on its head: It projected 100 seats for AAP, 10 for Congress, and 6 for SAD-BSP. While AAP’s vote share burgeoned from 24 per cent to more than 42 per cent, that of the Congress slid down to about 24 per cent from 38 per cent and the Akali Dal slumped to less than 20 per cent from 24 per cent in 2017.
AAP has been waiting for a breakthrough in Punjab ever since its inception and even before it finally wrested power in Delhi in 2015. But, after winning 4 of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, it met with limited success. Despite a projected wave in 2017, it could win only 20 seats. Congress came to power in Punjab with a whopping 77 seats, as AAP emerged as the main opposition party.
This should have been a warning to the traditional parties, especially the Congress. Instead of acting on the plethora of promises made before the 2017 polls, it frittered away the golden opportunity as mis-governance became its hallmark.
As the disenchantment of people against the Congress grew, the yearning for change (“badal”), which was discernible even in 2017, got reinforced. Said well-known economist, Prof. Ranjit Singh Ghuman, “As ‘badal’ (change) became a buzz word in Punjab, the anger against the traditional parties turned into hatred. AAP’s plea for “ikk mauka” (one chance) started gaining acceptability. The continuing infighting and shenanigans of the Congress leaders further turned the people towards AAP.”
AAP, which till six months before polls, was in disarray in Punjab, slowly starting getting its act together. Learning from mistakes from 2017, Arvind Kejriwal was careful not to be seen partisan, especially in the background of his party having been branded “pro-radicals” then. To appeal to the urban Hindu voter, he undertook “Tiranga Yatras”.
The party launched an advertisement blitzkrieg in the media in Punjab on his government’s performance in Delhi, especially in the field of education and health. To make up for the lack of party structure at the grassroots level, he started inducting well-known faces from other parties as candidates before the polls. Since the NRI support and funds were lacking this time, he decided on giving at least some tickets to people with moneybags, including a well-known realtor-developer of SAS Nagar.
With other parties in a state of paralysis, Arvind Kejriwal launched a carefully calibrated campaign six months ago. In 2017 he had hit upon the idea of preparing a Manifesto through public dialogues. Other parties too were forced into preparing detailed manifestos. This time, he resorted to announcing “guarantees”, including 300 units of free electricity to every household and Rs 1,000 per month allowance to home-makers (women).
Others were forced to announce similar populist schemes. He then decided on a massive public relations outreach programme to select the party’s CM-face. The people’s pick, Bhagwant Mann, who was already a house-hold name, was an instant hit with the common man. The Congress, which till then had decided to go for a “collective leadership” of three (Channi, Sidhu and Sunil Jakhar) was forced to change course and announce Channi as a CM-face. With AAP setting the agenda, other parties who were devoid of a strategy and plan, followed suit, looking like poor copycats.
Such was the resentment against traditional parties that people glossed over all alleged allegations against AAP
Sensing widespread anger of the people and even its MLAs, the Congress attempted an overhaul six months ago. In the process it glossed over a similar previous experiment which had backfired. Way back in 1997 when the party had changed the then CM with a new face three months before polls, it was reduced to a mere 14 seats. So it was this time too. Besides, the change of guard at the crucial juncture exacerbated the infighting within the party which further turned the people from it.
Though Navjot Sidhu, who was inducted into the party from the BJP in 2016, was made the State Party President six months ago, he continued to take pot-shots at his own government and fellow-colleagues. Sensing Sidhu’s alienation within party, the Congress High Command decided to declare Channi as a CM-face, despite a serious corruption charge against a close relative of his.
For the people, this may have acted as a red rag to a bull. As a Dalit, Channi was also expected to garner a big chunk of the 32 per cent Dalit votes in the state, especially in the Doaba region. But this was a risky gamble as the Dalit population in Punjab is not homogenous but split into various castes and sub-castes. All this left Sidhu sulking. Commented a senior Congressman, “Not only did our party allow Sidhu to inflict serious damage, they failed to use him as an effective campaigner. As a CM-face, he would have been the fitting counter to Bhagwant Mann. Besides, his “Punjab Model” could have been an option for “badal” (change) and a counter to AAP’s “Delhi model.” But that was not to be.
AAP, whose success was limited to Malwa belt in 2017, this time managed to sweep the Majha and Doaba areas as well.
For the shell-shocked SAD, the poll results are a reason for serious introspect. Clearly the people have still not gotten over the SAD-BJP misrule of 10 years, especially the incidents of religious sacrilege, scourge of drugs and widespread corruption during its regime. Admitted a party leader, “Perhaps not just the leadership but the entire party needs an image make-over.”
The BJP-PLC-SAD (S) combine also failed to click as a political force. BJP not only faced people’s anger due to its year-long intransigent stand on farm bills but also suffered for having tied-up with a person perceived to be a non-performing CM, Captain Amarinder Singh. Though voting trends are not yet out, along with the farmers’ party, SSM, the BJP-combine may have cut into votes of the Congress and SAD-BSP in at least some seats.
Symbolism and populism, which were the hallmarks of the AAP campaign, also herald the start of the new political innings in Punjab. In his victory speech outside his house in Sangrur, Bhagwant Mann announced that the photographs of Shaheed-a-Azam, Bhagat Singh and architect of the Constitution, Babasaheb Ambedkar would hang in government offices in the state instead of the CM, as is customary. He also announced that the new government would be sworn-in not in the Raj Bhawan at Chandigarh but in Khatkar Kalan, ancestral village of Bhagat Singh.
It is clearly party time for AAP. But once the celebrations have died down, the CM and his team will have to go beyond symbolism and get on to brass tacks. A long list of challenges, including massive unemployment, stare the new Government in the face. How it handles these in a volatile border state would chart the party’s onward political march to other states in the coming months.